Evaluating Public Health's Ability to Model Infectious Diseases: A Qualitative Investigation of State and Local Organizations

Abstract

Tools for forecasting and modeling infectious diseases are essential for managing outbreaks. However, there is variation in state and local health departments' ability to use these technologies efficiently, which is impacted by things like financing, staffing levels, infrastructure, and data availability. The purpose of this study is to determine the state and local public health departments' present objectives, requirements, and capabilities with regard to infectious disease modeling and forecasting tools. Epidemiologists, informaticists, and leaders from state and municipal health departments in Montana, Utah, and Washington were interviewed as key informants. For thematic analysis, axial coding and thematic coding were employed. Three themes surfaced: (1) models and instruments need to be flexible according to the type of jurisdiction (state, urban, or rural); (2) Adoption is significantly preceded by the development of trust in models and tools; and (3) data availability and quality are issues. The need for flexible modeling techniques that are suited to particular public health jurisdictions is highlighted by this study. For modeling and forecasting techniques to be successfully implemented and used in a variety of public health contexts, it is imperative to solve data quality concerns and foster trust in these tools.