Climate Variability and Agricultural Yields in Semi-Arid Mediterranean Zones: A Case Study of Algeria's Cereal Sector

Abstract

Algeria's cereal production plays a strategic role in ensuring national food security, given its centrality in the population's diet and its impact on import dependency,  primarily centered on durum wheat, soft wheat, and barley production. Despite its strategic importance, this sector faces persistent challenges from climatic variability, particularly water scarcity, and structural inefficiencies such as land fragmentation and reliance on rain-fed agriculture. This study provides a comprehensive systemic analysis of Algeria's cereal production within the broader agricultural framework, evaluating the national strategies including heavy subsidies, import dependency, and ongoing efforts towards modernization and climate-smart agriculture. Drawing on recent production data, climatic assessments, and policy reviews, the analysis reveals the fragility of Algeria’s cereal self-sufficiency goals amid increasing climate volatility. Key recommendations emphasize accelerating irrigation expansion, adopting drought-resistant seed varieties, and reforming land tenure systems to enhance productivity and resilience. This integrative approach aims to move Algeria from a subsidy-dependent cereal system towards a sustainable and resilient agricultural model, securing long-term food sovereignty in the face of mounting environmental and economic pressures.