Reliability Assessment of Bullet Train System under Multi Uncertainty Scenarios using MILP Benders Decomposition Framework

Abstract

High speed bullet trains require uninterrupted traction power, yet existing renewable integrated railway models do not quantify reliability under minute-wise grid outage conditions. This paper presents a multiscenario optimisation framework that evaluates outage driven reliability degradation and determines cost effective PV-battery support for uninterrupted train operation. Scenario 1, defined as stochastic Benders reliability assessment, analyses the black out sensitivity over the full system journey at randomised load and solar profiles. Scenario 2, referred as segment based Benders reliability assessment, enables segment level planning, adaptive sizing under realistic load and solar profiles. The dynamic Benders formulation achieves 98.95% reduction in Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS) in Scenario 1 and 98.13% reduction in Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) in Scenario 2 compared with fixed optimised sizing. Scenario 3, a strategic joint cost reliability Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) framework evaluates the trade-off between cost and reliability under budget and EENS constraints. The proposed framework integrates outage modelling, renewable dispatch and reliability optimisation into a unifed methodology. Simulation results confirm that proposed optimisation framework maintains traction continuity while enabling economically effcient renewable sizing for next generation high speed rail corridors.