The Alliance-Buildıng Dilemma Under Shared Security Pressures in the Context of the Greater Middle East Project: Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, And Egypt

Abstract

This study examines why Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have failed to establish a sustainable and institutionalized regional alliance despite intensifying common security pressures in the context of the Greater Middle East Project, employing a multidimensional analytical framework. The research centers on the concept of "alliance failure dilemma" to question the validity conditions of classical alliance theories in the Middle Eastern context. The study develops a multilayered theoretical model integrating the security dilemma, strategic autonomy, regime security, collective action problem, regional security complexes, economic vulnerabilities, and discursive construction processes. Using qualitative comparative case analysis methodology, the structural and perceptual reasons underlying why five regional middle powers respond differently to similar security threats were analyzed through thematic analysis technique. The findings reveal that the alliance failure dilemma stems not from the absence of threats but from profound differences in threat interpretation and prioritization, regional leadership competition, regime security concerns, and structural constraints created by international sanctions. The research demonstrates that the security dilemma, pursuit of strategic autonomy, and collective action problems constitute mutually reinforcing cyclical mechanisms, transforming the alliance failure dilemma into a self-reproducing structural problem. The study offers original conceptual and empirical contributions to regional security literature, critically re , reassesses the universality claims of classical alliance theories in non-Western contexts, and develops concrete recommendations for policymakers. In this regard, the study illuminates the critical juncture between regional fragmentation and strategic cooperation, providing significant implications for the future of the Middle Eastern security order.