Climate-Resilient Regional Infrastructure Planning Using Integrated Energy Water Transport Nexus Modeling for Sustainable Urban and Territorial Systems

Abstract

Regional infrastructure planning in climate-vulnerable territorial systems increasingly demands integrated analytical frameworks capable of addressing cross-sectoral interdependencies between energy supply, water resource management, and transportation networks. This study examines the relevance and applicability of an integrated Energy–Water–Transport (EWT) nexus modelling approach for climate-resilient regional infrastructure planning, with specific contextualization to the development trajectory of the Lake Toba strategic tourism and territorial growth area. As a rapidly transforming regional system experiencing infrastructure expansion, ecological pressure, and spatial-economic restructuring, the Lake Toba region represents a critical case for examining how infrastructure planning paradigms may transition from sectoral fragmentation toward systemic resilience-based planning models. Using a systems-based simulation framework, this research develops a coupled nexus modelling architecture to evaluate the dynamic interactions between infrastructure demand growth, land-use change, hydrological stress, transport accessibility, and regional energy consumption under projected climate variability scenarios. The modelling integrates multi-scalar spatial planning datasets with infrastructure service-flow analysis to assess how climate-induced uncertainties—including precipitation variability, thermal stress, and mobility disruptions—may affect long-term infrastructure performance and territorial sustainability outcomes. Findings indicate that infrastructure investment strategies based on integrated nexus modelling significantly enhance adaptive capacity by reducing resource inefficiencies, minimizing transport-energy trade-offs, and stabilizing water–energy demand feedback loops across peri-urban and tourism-intensive zones. Furthermore, scenario analysis demonstrates that nexus-oriented infrastructure planning can improve regional resilience by up to 28% in terms of service continuity under climate stress conditions, particularly in lake-based urbanizing environments where infrastructure interdependencies are highly pronounced. The study contributes to the advancement of climate-resilient regional planning methodologies by proposing a decision-support framework capable of aligning spatial development objectives with infrastructure sustainability imperatives in emerging territorial economies.